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PREDICTIVE PULSE
What the money is saying.
A publication of Commercial Lending Solutions
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PP-021
May 15, 2026
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The markets are pricing in a Goldilocks economy that simply refuses to crack—90% odds on solid GDP growth while recession fears stay muted through 2026, with the Fed playing statue through next year. But here's the tension: inflation is expected to spike in May before cooling by June, suggesting markets believe whatever's coming is a one-time jolt rather than the return of the monster, which means traders are either brilliantly calm or dangerously complacent.
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Fed & Macro
| Market |
Prob. |
Volume |
Resolves |
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Will there be a recession in 2026?
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19.0% |
$2.1M |
Jan 31, 2027 |
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Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?
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38.1% |
$205K |
Jan 1, 2027 |
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Will there be a recession in 2027?
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41.0% |
$29K |
Jan 31, 2028 |
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Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in May 2026?
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57.0% |
$22K |
Jun 10, 2026 |
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Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q2 2026?
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90.0% |
$15K |
Jul 30, 2026 |
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Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2027 meeting?
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91.0% |
$10K |
Apr 28, 2027 |
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Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in June 2026?
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34.0% |
$6K |
Jul 14, 2026 |
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Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?
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81.0% |
$5K |
Dec 9, 2026 |
Markets & Assets
| Market |
Prob. |
Volume |
Resolves |
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Gold hits $4,800 in May
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23.0% |
$53K |
Jun 1, 2026 |
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Gold hits $4,900 in May
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8.5% |
$45K |
Jun 1, 2026 |
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Bitcoin hits $150K by June 30
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1.4% |
$15.7M |
Jul 1, 2026 |
Middle East
| Market |
Prob. |
Volume |
Resolves |
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US invades Iran before 2027
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26.5% |
$28.2M |
Dec 31, 2026 |
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US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31
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9.5% |
$23.4M |
May 31, 2026 |
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Netanyahu out by June 30
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4.5% |
$5.1M |
Jun 30, 2026 |
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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31
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1.1% |
$1.2M |
Jun 30, 2026 |
California
| Market |
Prob. |
Volume |
Resolves |
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Gavin Newsom wins 2028 Dem presidential nomination
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24.1% |
$25.1M |
Nov 7, 2028 |
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Tom Steyer wins CA Governor 2026
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31.6% |
$3.3M |
Nov 3, 2026 |
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Chad Bianco wins CA Governor 2026
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2.8% |
$1.2M |
Nov 3, 2026 |
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Katie Porter wins CA Governor 2026
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2.1% |
$1.1M |
Nov 3, 2026 |
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Kyle Langford wins CA Governor 2026
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0.1% |
$1.4M |
Nov 3, 2026 |
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Steve Hilton wins CA Governor 2026
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9.6% |
$1.2M |
Nov 3, 2026 |
Sports & Events
| Event |
Odds |
Volume |
Resolves |
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Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs
Team Falcons: 52.5% | FURIA: 47.5%
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$770K |
May 15, 2026 |
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
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30.5%
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$5.9M |
Jun 30, 2026 |
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Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi
Casper Ruud: 87.5% | Luciano Darderi: 12.5%
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$594K |
May 22, 2026 |
Market Mover of the Week
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi moved ↑ +58.0pp this week and is now at 87.5% probability (volume: $594K).
On the Horizon
| Market |
Resolves |
Prob. |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs |
May 15, 2026 |
52.5% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers |
May 15, 2026 |
61.5% |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi |
May 22, 2026 |
87.5% |
Wild Card
| Market |
Prob. |
Volume |
Resolves |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers |
61.5% |
$645K |
May 15, 2026 |
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Prediction markets translate real-money collective intelligence into forward-looking probability signals. For commercial real estate and finance professionals, those signals offer an early read on the rate moves, policy shifts, and economic conditions that drive cap rates, deal flow, and lending decisions — before the headlines catch up.
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Prediction market probabilities reflect crowd-sourced forecasts and are not investment advice. Past accuracy is no guarantee of future performance.
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