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PREDICTIVE PULSE
What the money is saying.
A publication of Commercial Lending Solutions
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PP-025
May 15, 2026
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The prediction market is screaming one thing: May's inflation print will run hot (57% odds of a >0.5% jump), but traders are already pricing in a sharp cooldown through summer as if the Fed's work is nearly done. Meanwhile, GDP stays robust at 90% odds for Q2 growth above 1%—either we're headed for the softest of landings, or someone's about to get burned.
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Fed & Macro
| Market |
Prob. |
Volume |
Resolves |
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Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in May 2026?
↑ +38.0pp
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57.0%
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$22K |
Jun 10, 2026 |
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Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in June 2026?
↓ -4.1pp
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34.0%
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$6K |
Jul 14, 2026 |
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Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q2 2026?
↑ +49.0pp
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90.0%
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$15K |
Jul 30, 2026 |
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Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in July 2026?
↓ -33.0pp
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24.0%
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$5K |
Aug 12, 2026 |
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Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in August 2026?
↓ -47.0pp
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43.0%
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$3K |
Sep 11, 2026 |
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Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026?
↓ -66.0pp
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25.0%
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$2K |
Oct 14, 2026 |
Markets & Assets
| Market |
Prob. |
Volume |
Resolves |
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Gold hits $4,800 in May
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23.5%
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$53K |
Jun 1, 2026 |
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Gold hits $4,900 in May
↑ +1.0pp
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9.5%
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$45K |
Jun 1, 2026 |
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Bitcoin hits $150K by June 30
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1.4%
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$15.7M |
Jul 1, 2026 |
Middle East
| Market |
Prob. |
Volume |
Resolves |
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US invades Iran before 2027
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26.5%
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$28.2M |
Dec 31, 2026 |
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US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31
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9.5%
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$23.5M |
May 31, 2026 |
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Netanyahu out by June 30
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4.5%
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$5.1M |
Jun 30, 2026 |
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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31
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1.1%
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$1.2M |
Jun 30, 2026 |
California
| Market |
Prob. |
Volume |
Resolves |
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Gavin Newsom wins 2028 Dem presidential nomination
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24.1%
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$25.1M |
Nov 7, 2028 |
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Tom Steyer wins CA Governor 2026
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31.6%
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$3.3M |
Nov 3, 2026 |
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Chad Bianco wins CA Governor 2026
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2.8%
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$1.2M |
Nov 3, 2026 |
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Katie Porter wins CA Governor 2026
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2.4%
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$1.1M |
Nov 3, 2026 |
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Kyle Langford wins CA Governor 2026
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0.1%
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$1.4M |
Nov 3, 2026 |
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Steve Hilton wins CA Governor 2026
↑ +0.9pp
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9.8%
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$1.2M |
Nov 3, 2026 |
Sports & Events
| Event |
Odds |
Volume |
Resolves |
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Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs
Team Falcons: 51.5% | FURIA: 48.5%
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$1.3M |
May 15, 2026 |
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Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi
Casper Ruud: 86.5% | Luciano Darderi: 13.5%
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$693K |
May 22, 2026 |
Wild Card
| Market |
Prob. |
Volume |
Resolves |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? |
29.5%
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$5.9M |
Jun 30, 2026 |
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Prediction markets translate real-money collective intelligence into forward-looking probability signals. For commercial real estate and finance professionals, those signals offer an early read on the rate moves, policy shifts, and economic conditions that drive cap rates, deal flow, and lending decisions — before the headlines catch up.
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Prediction market probabilities reflect crowd-sourced forecasts and are not investment advice. Past accuracy is no guarantee of future performance.
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